Before March 2000, in the bull market, whisper numbers were all the rage. In fact, these estimates became so popular for the outlandish pre-”tech bubble” gainers that Wall Street often notched real estimates lower than actual expectations just to be able to “beat the consensus.” Today, earnings whispers are still used, but not as confidently as before. Let’s talk about how you can find and use these numbers to your advantage to rake in some insane profits!

What Is an Earnings Whisper?
Let’s start off by addressing what this term actually means. Earnings whispers, also called whisper numbers, are essentially modified earnings estimates from what investors think will happen in a company’s quarterly earnings call. We all know how important earnings calls are for publicly traded companies, as they can drive a stock up or down by huge amounts if they come in above or below previous forecasts.

Most companies will announce two things in their earnings report, their earnings per share from the previous quarter, and their anticipated earnings for the next quarter and year in focus. Admitedly, future guidance has become more important than anything else in these economic times, but if earnings miss for the quarter by even a penny, you shouldn’t be surprised to see a stock’s value fall double-digit percentages.

So basically, an earnings whisper is a collective sentiment, coming anywhere from an investment firm water cooler to a stock market bulletin board, that judges how a company is expected to report in that all important earnings call. If you can successfully predict a “beat” or a “miss,” and buy/short accordingly… you can potentially lock in an immediate 10%+ gain. Granted, sometimes this upside or downside expectation is literally built in to the share price already, but I find that there is a good chance that you’ll see movement regardless.

So Where Can I Get a Whisper Number?
You’ll hear debates about which website is the best, but there are essentially two competitors in the whisper number arena, WhisperNumber.com and EarningsWhispers.com. So what exactly is different about these two websites? Essentially,  the numbers you will get are often going to be different by a cent or two, which can make a world of difference in the stock market. With both claiming an almost “insider knowledge” of the results, it can be tough grabbing an accurate estimation.

Starting with Whisper Number, they grab estimates from over 50,000 subscribers. One of the site’s leaders, John Scherr, says that he gets expectations “from individual investors, his software trolls message boards, press coverage, chat rooms, and takes into account the opinions of visitors coming to the site who can add their voice to data.”

From Earnings Whispers, editor Shannon Puls says that her site pulls information from over 150,000 subscribers. What’s more, Puls notes that the site “cold calls analysts, reads every earnings preview and published research reports, regularly checks in with regular traders, quoting analyst names and companies when possible ‘for transparency.’”

So basically, both websites do essentialy the same thing, but pull from different sources with each telling you they are the more reliable resource. What you can do is simply take both numbers into account throughout your research. There are as many examples of Earnings Whispers being more reliable after the call as there are of Whisper Number getting the green light, so you will need to judge for yourself.

A Quick Example
While you shouldn’t be relying on whispers as a one-stop solution for trading stocks, it is often a reliable measure of future trading action on a stock, and a powerful tool that all traders look toward. Just yesterday, May 08, NVidia (NYSE: NVDA) reported earnings after the market closed. The consensus earnings estimate from NVidia management called for $0.38 per share for the first quarter 2008, excluding stock-option expenses. However, the earnings whisper was for just $0.35 per share due to a supposed weakness in the tech environment.

Long story short, earnings came in below NVidia’s expectations… so the shares immediately slipped almost 9% in after hours trading. But when guidance was in line, it was understood that they had actually beaten the whisper number by a cent after reporting first quarter results at $0.36 a share… and stocks traded back to about even (and were positive the next day). This is just one example of how an earnings whisper can sometimes be more important than a company’s quarterly guidance.

Bottom Line: I am not recommending in the least that you turn to earnings whispers as your only source of information. It is important to keep a grasp on what a company does, how they are doing it, and what kind of growth is at hand. However, if you are not up to par on these all-important whisper numbers… you are going to be at a loss, and could potentially see your holdings move drastically one way or the other unexpectedly. So do your homework, and stay bullish on the net!

-The Net Fool

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It’s official.

In the most recent update of Google’s PageRank service, theNetFool.com was awarded one of the higher distinctions possible with a PageRank 4 rating. The jump from a PR 0 to a PR 4 is one of the bigger steps ever recorded on the internet, and is certainly something worth bragging about.

What the heck is Google Pagerank!?
This post was originally going to be intended to explain the pageranking service, but I feel that the details will bog down this post so I am going to make an entire post dedicated to the explanation sometime later this week. In a nutshell, Google Pagerank is a complex algorithm that literally “ranks” websites on a scale of 1-10 based on traffic, content and current standing (number of links, etc.). This service is updated at random intervals, usually somewhere from 3-5 times each year, so it causes a real commotion when webmasters begin to see things changing.

Why is Pagerank important?
People will tell you that PageRank is useless, but anyone that tells you that is either depressed they do not have a good ranking, or simply off their rocker. Truth be told, there are MUCH better services to rank the strength of a website than Pagerank. I side with those that say hey, PageRank shouldn’t be important… because typically it is not the best measure of traffic, readers, etc. However, it is also a fact that most people care about what Google PR website’s have when they compile “top website” rankings, and more importantly, advertise.

Advertising is probably the single most important function of Google’s PageRank. Advertisers look at a website with a high PR and justify buying sponsored reviews, text links and banner ads based on this. Higher ranking, more money. So basically, if you have a high PR for your blog/site, you are going to be seen as a superior website whether this is actually true or not.

How does The Net Fool stack up to the competition?
With a current PageRank of 4, the Net Fool is now in the top tier of bloggers. I know that saying 4/10 sounds like you have nothing, but it is actually one of the higher rankings available… as you will soon see. Basically, most blogs are lucky to get a 3 after much work… the jump from 3 to 4 is a massive milestone, and it is tough to even get a 1 (default is 0). But don’t take my word from it… let’s glance at my competitors to see how they stack up.

Most notably, we have the same rank as JohnChow.com, arguably the most popular money blog on the internet with over 25,000 RSS subscribers and over 200,000 unique visitors every money. We are also tied with Winning The Web (almost 900 subscribers). Websites that The Net Fool is currently beating include most of my direct competitors. John Cow, Tyler Cruz and Blog Trepreneur all have a PR 3 with about 1,500 subscribers a piece, and smaller scale blogs like Blog About Your Blog, Jonathan Volk, The University Kid, and Sly Visions have PR 3 rankings with RSS subscribers ranging from 250-1000 subscribers each.

Am I saying that The Net Fool dot com is better than these blogs now? Absolutely. Not necessarily. But a higher PageRank certainly reflects well on my content. I have asked around and it seems that well-written content has a huge factor now in rankings, so having quality information has definitely supported my growth (as it should).

I was a bit sheepish in writing this post, since I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw my blog has been awarded a powerful 4 rankings. Honestly, I expected a 2 (if anything), so I was absolutely floored when I saw the news. At this point, it seems locked in now that it is one week after the update, so I am pleased to announce this dramatic improvement. Even the little guy can accomplish great things by writing quality content, networking with other bloggers and staying bullish on the net!

-The Net Fool

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When you see a product promoted on any blog or website, they are more than likely running a campaign through one of the thousands of affiliate programs on the internet. Most of these are simply anonymous referral-link setups that leave you completely on your own, but in steps AffiliateBidding.com to shake things up.

I have seen some promising websites, and I have seen some destined for failure. Affiliate Bidding is one of those websites that has a very sound business plan, but is so new on the map that they have yet to pierce the competitive surface. Essentially what AffiliateBidding.com is offering is a platform for both publishers and advertisers to reach out directly to clients and secure referral/advertising deals directly. The advantage? No longer dealing with those messy affiliate links, you know the “http://www.site.com/ref?=2939″ that people hate.

Does the system work? I think that the system would definitely work, but there is just so little interest at this point that there isn’t much to see. The good news is that registration is completely free, so why not register and check out what offers are there for you to capitalize on!?

Let’s take an example. The latest offer in the ad marketplace reads:

“I’m offering merchants and affiliate programs to advertise on my new blog. The audience are mainly women. This may be a good opportunity to advertise your products and services. Any reasonable offers considered.”

Now, this could be a great opportunity for the smaller bloggers, as it only offers one dollar. But guess what the date on it is? April 17th, that’s about half a month ago… clearly there is a problem and people are not using the service enough.

The verdict? This is a great idea for a business partnership network. I personally would love the opportunity to connect with people that advertise on my page, and those that I advertise for, on a whole new level. Unfortunately, this website seems to be “on hold” and the entire system really hasn’t been touched in some time.

Everything is automatic, and the way it is organized is self explanatory… however, I am not going to recommend that you use them basically because of this supreme lack of interest on the owner’s end.

-The Net Fool

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Alright, you’ve heard the popular phrase “content before cash” thrown around all across the blogosphere. Well, here’s a controversial spin on the matter… I’m taking the money!

Sure, I’m all for the utopian, lovely, happy world where you can sit peacefully at your desk… writing articles for others to enjoy… all day long. Sounds fantastic. Unfortunately, anyone who actually believes this is living in a dream world. As a blogger, you need to be focused on number one. Cash Is King!

I want to reverse this phrase on the ‘make money online’ niche. Understandably, if you have a personal blog or if you are writing about landscaping or aquatic sports… you may have something else in mind. Nevertheless, if you are writing in this niche, you need to focus on cash… here’s five reasons why:

1. Your Focus Should Match Your Goal
If you are writing about making money online, but aren’t even focused on making money off your blog… you are in the wrong line of work my friend. The make money online niche is all about, go figure, creating cash flows on the internet. I really doubt your readers are going to be offended if you are making cash off of their traffic, in fact, they probably want to hear about how you are doing it. As a blogger in the area, I’m going to be more concerned about what I am bringing in than anything else. People telling you “I’m not in it for the money” are either lying to your face, or aren’t the kind of people you should be taking advice from.

2. Writing to Make Money Produces the Content
Go figure, if you are focused more on cash than content, who’s to say you are going to be writing bad material!? Not me. I write with the intention of getting a lot of traffic, subscribers… and ultimately ad revenue. Guess what? This ends up producing some pretty awesome blog posts. The fact remains, if you are really focused on making cash, than writing really good material is going to come naturally as an extension of this goal. Nobody ever made a dime rambling off uselessly. As much as readers want helpful content, it’s not going to come at the hands of some blogger who isn’t dedicated toward making online revenue.

3. You Can Make Money Off a Bad Blog
There are plenty of popular blogs out there that are making better money than me, and writing content that is sub-par at best. Look at John Chow for example. The man clearly isn’t too concerned anymore with offering new, original or useful content to readers, and people are literally eating out of the palm of his hand. This situation cannot exist under the doctrine of “content before cash.” Right? People who read ‘make money online’ blogs want to learn how to make money, not how to write content. So while it’s always important, you can definitely make a better living by focusing on your paycheck than by simply writing well.

4. Marketing Can Be More Important Than Writing
I’m not going to say “marketing IS more important than writing” because I’m not into getting hate mail… despite the fact that this is probably true. Consider this, theNetFool.com has been around since October 2007. But when you look at my traffic/RSS graphs, I had about 10 subscribers and less than 50 unique visitors per day until I started actively marketing my blog in March. Things exploded, and people comment all the time saying my content is great. But guess what… nobody can read your content unless you let them know it is there. The goal of marketing is to make money, and marketing is the key to owning a successful blog. Therefore, putting the transitive property to work shows us that focusing on money will lead to a more successful blog. Now there’s math you can bank on!

5. Cash Drives Blogging Motivation
Here’s the bottom line about blogging, things get old fast when you write articles that don’t bring home the bacon. Perhaps you just enjoy writing… but being in the ‘make money online’ blogging niche should mean that you are trying to make money online. Again, if your blog isn’t doing this for you, where is the motivation!? Steady cash flows make for a more inspired blog, better writing, more interactivity, increased traffic, the list goes on and on. By focusing on cash over content, you are going to put a good amount of work into your website and make things better all around.

Sorry to be so blunt, but I am not writing to spoon feed my readers what they want to hear. The fact is that in the blogging realm, it can be really cut throat. If you are focused on content over cash, you are doing something wrong and are going to be left in the dust. New advertising campaigns, referral programs, traffic sharing schemes and the like pop up all the time. If you are too concerned with writing good material all the time, you are going to end up missing the boat. People won’t wait for you to play catch up.

-The Net Fool

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This is a guest post by Kevin from The Red Stapler Chronicles - an up and coming personal finance blog about making money and get paid to websites.

1. “Get busy living or get busy dying”
—Andy Dufresne, Shawshank Redemption

The millions of Americans that are currently overwhelmed with debt and are on the road to financial ruin, really only have two choices.  They can immediately start taking measures to reduce their debt and spending.  Even if they are able to eliminate one monthly bill or pay an extra $25 on a credit card, they are “getting busy living” toward of debtless future.   Yes, sometimes the path to recovery can be a long and difficult one (probably not as bad as Andy’s path to freedom in the movie).  However, the second option, ignoring the problem, will quickly cause your financial life to end via drowning in a vast debt pool.

2. “Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.” — Forrest Gump, Forrest Gump

If you can predict the future, you don’t need to be wasting your time reading any personal finance blog.  But, if you can’t, you need to prepare for unexpected events.  Sometimes these events will be tragedies (a layoff or illness), while sometimes they will be blessings (a pregnancy or wedding).  Regardless, a nicely funded emergency fund is a necessity.  Experts say a great fund would cover 6 months of living expenses.  Nevertheless, a thousand dollar emergency fund would surely be a good start.

3. “It’s not always the popular person who gets the job done.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street

Of course, I had to include a quote from Wall Street in this list.  Often, difficult decisions have to be made in order to eliminate debt.  These decisions are more than likely to affect others.  For instance, try explaining to your teenage daughter why you are getting rid of HBO, Showtime, and Starz to save some extra money.  Imagine how your co-workers might react if you start putting in extra hours in order to earn a promotion.  Regardless, if you are really determined to eradicate your debt, you will sometimes have to play the role of the bad girl/guy.

4. “You’re not your job.  You’re not how much money you have in the bank.  You’re not the car you drive.  You’re not the contents of your wallet.  You’re not your f**king khakis.” — Tyler Durden, Fight Club

Too frequently, Americans get caught up in a destructive possession contest (usually with a family member, neighbor, or in-law).  It really must be engrained in our DNA somehow.  For example, your brother buys a new self-propelled lawn mower—you get a sit down mower.    Perhaps, your brother-in-law boasts at Christmas table about his recent success in the stock market, you create an E-Trade account the second he leaves.   Would you take a job as a garbage man even if it had a higher salary and better benefits than your current job?  These types of decisions are rarely based on anything remotely close to real financial data.  Even though you probably will get a temporary high of being able to “one up” a family member or spare yourself the humiliation of telling someone you are a garbage man, these decisions are unlikely to provide any lasting happiness in your life.

5. “Life goes by pretty fast.  If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” — Ferris Bueller, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

I think everyone would agree that reducing and eventually eliminating debt is an extremely worthwhile goal.  Too many Americans are forced to live under extreme levels of stress because of their financial difficulties.  Still, life is too short to make EVERY decision in your life based on saving money.  You can still enjoy a trip to the movies to see the newest blockbuster (maybe sneak in your own snacks though J).  You can still go to your parent’s house across the country for the holidays (maybe you forgo the non-stop flight to save money).  The road to a healthier financial situation is not short and will not be a straight line.  Just keep your financial compass in the right direction and you will eventually reach your goal.

Even movies can help you live a better, more economical lifestyle. Remember to plan for the worst, and keep your finances in order if you really want to live the dream!

-The Net Fool

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